The recent fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime has marked a historic turning point in Syria. For Egyptians, this event resonates deeply, not just because of regional ties but also due to the reactions of Syrians living in Egypt. Here’s a breakdown of the situation, with insights into its local impact.

What just happened in Syria?

After 24 years in power, Assad’s regime fell following a rapid ten-day offensive by rebel forces. Key cities like Aleppo, Homs, and Hama fell before the rebels captured Damascus, the capital. Reports suggest Assad fled the city, with some indications he may have sought refuge at a Russian military base. His exact whereabouts remain unknown.

The offensive was marked by minimal resistance in Damascus, signaling internal fractures within Assad’s military and government.

What should I know about the Syrian Civil War?

The Syrian Civil War began in 2011 after Assad’s forces violently suppressed pro-democracy protests. The conflict spiraled into a complex war involving rebel groups, ISIS, and international powers like the U.S., Russia, and Iran. It resulted in one of the worst humanitarian crises of the century, with over 500,000 deaths, millions displaced, and widespread destruction of infrastructure.

Who is Bashar al-Assad, and why is he disliked?

Bashar al-Assad is the former president of Syria who ruled from 2000 until December 2024. He inherited power from his father, Hafez al-Assad, who had ruled Syria for 29 years. Hafez’s policies shaped Syria into a heavily centralized and authoritarian state, which Bashar continued.

Assad is widely disliked due to his oppressive governance, economic mismanagement, and the humanitarian crisis his regime perpetuated. His violent crackdown on protests in 2011 escalated into a devastating civil war. Over the years, his regime has been accused of war crimes, including chemical attacks, which further alienated him from the Syrian people and the international community.

Who are the rebel forces?

The rebel forces that toppled Assad include a coalition of opposition groups, with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) taking a leading role. HTS, originally linked to Islamist factions, has evolved to play a prominent role in the broader opposition.

The leadership of the coalition remains somewhat decentralized, which could present challenges for governance. However, their victory reflects a level of coordination not seen in previous offensives during the civil war.

Why did Assad’s regime fall now?

Several factors contributed to the regime’s collapse:

• Weakened Regime: Years of civil war, sanctions, and economic mismanagement left Assad’s government fragile.
• Public Unrest: Widespread protests fueled by economic collapse and corruption grew into a nationwide revolt.
• Rebel Coordination: Opposition groups managed to execute a swift, strategic offensive.
• Internal Defections: Reports suggest high-ranking military officials and government leaders abandoned Assad in recent weeks, further weakening the regime.

Is this good for Syrians?

The fall of Assad’s regime brings hope to many Syrians, but it also poses significant challenges.

Why it could be good:

• The civil war might finally end, allowing the country to move toward peace and rebuilding.
• A transitional government could address grievances and establish more inclusive governance.
• Rebel leaders are calling for unity among Syria’s diverse communities.

Challenges ahead:

• Power struggles among opposition factions could create further instability.
• Syria’s economy is in ruins, requiring massive international aid for recovery.
• Millions of displaced Syrians will face a long and difficult road to rebuilding their lives.

While the fall of Assad is a turning point, whether it truly benefits Syrians depends on how these challenges are addressed.

How has the international community responded?

Reactions from the international community have been varied:

• Western nations: The U.S. and Europe are closely monitoring the situation, with no plans for direct intervention.
• Russia and Iran: Assad’s strongest allies have suffered a major geopolitical loss, though their next steps remain unclear.
• Turkey: A key player in the Syrian conflict, Turkey has not yet issued a detailed response but may be concerned about potential instability along its border.
• Neighboring countries: Jordan and Lebanon have closed their borders to prevent the conflict’s spillover.

How did Syrians in Egypt react?

The fall of Assad’s regime was met with widespread celebrations among Syrians living in Egypt. In neighborhoods like 6th of October City and El-Obour, where large Syrian communities reside, people took to the streets with flags and chants, expressing joy and hope for their homeland’s future.

What’s next for Syria?

Syria faces a critical juncture, with the following priorities:

1. Forming a Transitional Government: Rebel leaders must stabilize the country and organize fair elections.
2. Rebuilding Infrastructure: The country’s cities and essential services have been devastated by years of war.
3. Addressing Sectarian Divides: Overcoming deep-rooted divides among Syria’s diverse communities will be essential for long-term peace.

However, there’s a risk that extremist groups or local militias could exploit the power vacuum left by Assad’s fall.

How did Assad’s regime fall so quickly?

The regime’s collapse was surprisingly swift due to:

• Strategic Rebel Offensive: Opposition forces executed a well-planned advance that overwhelmed government defenses.
• Military Defections: Key defections weakened Assad’s ability to resist.
• Lack of Resistance in Damascus: The capital fell without significant conflict, highlighting the regime’s vulnerability.

Can peace finally come to Syria?

While Assad’s fall is a pivotal moment, peace is not guaranteed. Achieving lasting stability will require addressing war crimes, fostering inclusive governance, and rebuilding trust among Syria’s communities. International cooperation will also be critical in rebuilding the country and supporting displaced Syrians.

The fall of Assad’s regime offers Syria a chance to move beyond years of war and oppression. However, the road ahead will depend on how well leaders, both domestic and international, navigate the monumental challenges facing the country.

This historic event has already inspired hope and celebrations, both in Syria and among Syrians living in Egypt. As the region watches closely, Egypt’s Syrian community continues to dream of returning to a homeland free of war and tyranny.